Arizona’s rapid growth means it is “likely to pick up a 10th seat in Congress” after the 2030 census, pushing its electoral-vote total from 11 to 12, according to new projections by Election Data Services, which cite a July 1 population estimate of 7.6 million and a forecast of 8.2 million residents by decade’s end. Because House seats are fixed at 435, the gain would come at other states’ expense: Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, New York, and especially California are all expected to lose seats, while Idaho would also add one; Texas and Florida are projected to pick up two each, reaching 40 and 30 seats respectively, with California still the largest delegation at 50 even after a two-seat loss. Arizona’s five-member Independent Redistricting Commission will draw any new district, established by voters in 2000 and legally required to balance equal population, community boundaries, and political competitiveness, a process that has produced both litigation and shifting partisan fortunes, most recently a 6-3 Republican congressional map after the 2020 cycle. Read more in the Arizona Capitol Times.
Read more about Arizona redistricting on the AZ Redistricting Almanac Page
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