Every 10 years the U.S. Census apportionment numbers are presented and every 10 years Election Data Services (EDS) releases a comprehensive analysis of the apportionment numbers giving us a contextual view of what they mean and how the numbers affect electoral politics in the U.S. This year’s EDS analysis is particularly intriguing. Here are some of the highlights. Read the full report here.
States that Just Missed an Additional Seat and States that Just Barely Held on to an Existing Seat: Under the Equal Proportions method of apportionment (which has been in use since the early 20th century), each state is initially assigned a seat per the U.S. Constitution- the remaining 385 are assigned using a priority ranking system based on population. The EDS analysis shows that ” in no other decade since the 1930’s has the margin for the final seat (#435) been so close.” The state of Minnesota secured the final seat with just 26 people to spare. Or put another way, Minnesota beat out New York for the last seat. New York would have switched places with Minnesota if it had just 89 more people. The EDS report details a list of several other states close to gaining or losing a seat as well, including Delaware, which was a modest 88,205 persons away from gaining a second congressional seat.
Average Size of Congressional Districts: The EDS map below shows the average size of individual congressional districts in each state. The color-coding indicates which states are above and below the average. Notice that Delaware and Idaho, two states that were close to gaining an additional seat, have an above-average congressional district size.
Ideal Congressional District Size: The EDS report also provides a listing of each state’s “ideal” district population size for congressional, and state upper and lower chambers. The listing is based on the 2020 census state resident population as shown below.
The EDS report includes additional analysis beyond these highlights. Read the Full report here.
